How baseball lines move, what the movement is worth, and what our own numbers say when we check them. Every study here ships with the full table — including the rows that don't flatter us.
169 MLB games, every row published. The favorites went 112–57 — and that number means far less than it looks like it does. Here's the honest reading.
Read the study→Explainers on how baseball lines actually move, and open studies where the full table ships with the finding.
169 MLB games, every row published. The favorites went 112–57 — and that number means far less than it looks like it does. Here's the honest reading.
Twenty cents sounds like nothing. It's about three points of win probability — and whether it matters depends entirely on how many books moved with it.
Baseball lines move more, and more often, than any other major sport's. Four reasons — and how the timing of a move tells you which one you're looking at.
Nothing moves a baseball line like a scratch. Why a probable is only a projection, why most books void the bet, and why a scratch is the one clean way to price a player.
Nineteen books at -140 is a completely different market from ten at -150 and nine at -130 — even though both average -140. Why we count books instead of averaging them.
The closing line is the market's final answer. Whether you beat it is the clearest evidence you have an edge — and it has almost nothing to do with whether your bet won.
A moneyline move answers who wins. A run-line move answers by how much. The cases where they disagree are the ones worth a second look.
Our line-history feed captures every tracked book four times a day and timestamps every significant move. These are the report types being built out of it.
Every game on the board ranked by how far it moved, open to close, with book agreement counts.
What the closing consensus said, and what actually happened. Graded afterwards, in public.
Games where the market changed its mind mid-day — the consensus moving one way, then back.
Historical queries re-run as the sample grows, republished with the full table every time.
Everything above is the free half. Premium members get every game, every morning, with the moves flagged as they happen.
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